UMPQ – Short – Swing

• I shorted UMPQ on Tuesday during the opening hour
• My Stop was conservatively set to the High of Friday
• My Target of $11.00 (round dollar) was reach today, and I exited my entire position

MDY – Stopped Out

• I entered Long on MDY back in early February
• I set out not to turn this winning trade into a losing trade
• However, I was just too greedy
• The Hammer Bearish Reversal on Friday should have set off a sell signal
• Looking back now, I should have set my Stop more aggressively at high $175.xx
• But hindsight is always perfect, isn’t it?

20070419 - GOOG - Daily - Gain

After reading Kevin's post on (GOOG) yesterday, I have decided to exit my holdings on GOOG before the market close today.

I earned a 'whopping' 65 cents per share! Hardly enough to cover my transaction fees!

Although Google released some very impressive numbers on their earnings, just like what Kevin mentioned, 'trading the Earning Release' is very risky. If you think about it, those CEOs or CFOs are basically going to come out and say... Earnings are:
1) Above Expectations
2) Meet Expectations
3) Below Expectations

Under normal circumstances, only 'Above Expectations' would bring you 'winnings', assuming that you are 'Long' on the Stocks. The other 2 results will likely to bring the share price down! Therefore, you are betting against the odds of 1 out of 3 that the price will go up.

Of course, you can argue that if you go 'Short' before the Release to get the odds in your favor! But are you really going to bet against companies like Google?

Anyway, I might not be making any sense at all on this topic. But at least this is how I see it when it comes to playing the Earnings game.

Let me know what you think!

20070409 - TRN - 15mins - Gain

Symbol: TRN
Type: Long
Entry: The beginning of the 6th bar (The arrow was at the wrong candle. It's the one after the hammer)
Exit: The 10th bar when it crossed the 138% Fib. Extension
Result: Gained +1.44%

A strong 4th bar followed by a Hammer-like candle on the 5th bar with a rising 5eMA led to go Long on this setup. Looking back now, I don't know if I have made the correct decision because the entry price was already closing in on the 119% Fib. Extension. Had the price not move beyond the 119 level, I don't know if the profit/loss ratio is that attractive at all.

But as soon as I entered the trade, the price just went loose and continued to rise. I monitored my stop closely and made adjustments. As soon as my 'entry-bar' had completed, I knew that I need to adjust my target to the 138% level. Unfortunately, it was reach 4 bars later and I exited. I'm happy!

20070409 - SCHN - 15mins - Gain

Symbol: SCHN
Type: Long
Entry: The beginning of the 6th bar
Exit: The 18th bar at Fibonacci Extension
Result: Gained +1.44%

SCHN gapped up with a weak Opening Bar. It then followed by 3 strong bars leading beyond the Opening High. The 5th bar is a weak Doji-like candle that closed above the Opening High. With the rising 5eMA, I took a low-risk entry at the beginning of the 6th bar. My target was 119% Fib. Extension. I was cautioned during the weak 9th bar, followed by a series of Narrow-range bars. Thankfully, it took off during the 16th bar, and hit my target 2 bars later.

20070330 - PMCS - 15mins - Gain

Symbol: PMCS
Type: Long
Entry: The beginning of the 7th bar
Exit: The beginning of the 13th bar
Result: Gained +1.86%

With my recent losses, I have decided to be more patience with my entry, and learn to take less risky move. The 5th bar was started from the Opening High. But without knowing where the bar would ended, I decided to wait till the 5th bar is over to look for further signs. It turned out that the 5th did close above the Opening High. Normally, I would have entered Long by now. But again, I decided to wait. The 6th bar stayed above the Opening High. My concern was that was a Doji Shape bar, signaling uncertainties and potential reversal. But I decided to enter at the break of the 7th bar. The prices raised along the rising 5eMA. Fearing that it will not hit the 138% Fib. Extension, I exited slightly early because I told myself that I want to end the week with a winning.

20070322 - AGIX - 15mins - Gain

Symbol: AGIX
Type: Long
Entry: The beginning of the 6th bar
Exit: The beginning of the 15th bar
Result: Gained of 0.54%

I entered at the beginning of the 6th bar because of the Doji-like 4th bar, and a rather strong 5th bar (closing close to its high). My target was the first-bar high, and the Stop was set at the 4th bar low.

The price did went up as expected in the next 2 bars, but it stayed flat for the remaining of the day. I exited towards the end of the day when the price went up slightly.

20070321 - FMT - 15mins - Gain

Symbol: FMT
Type: Long
Entry: The beginning of the 6th bar
Exit: The beginning of the 16th bar
Result: Gained +1.2%

Looking back at this trade, even I think I was too quick to jump in for Long. I was totally anticipating the rising 5eMA is going to support the falling price, when I have absolutely no sign of such support. The price could have just fell right through the 5eMA. I am damn lucky on this trade!

I exited the trade when the price close below the 5eMA on the 15th bar, and took action on the 16th.

A shameful trade even though I ended up with a gain.

20070313 - IMH - 15 Min - Gain

Symbol: IMH
Type: Short
Entry: Beginning of 8^th bar
Exit: 13^th bar at the 119% Fibonacci Level
Result: +1.8%

Gapped down on opening with a strong wide range opening bar. 2^nd bar retraced back to almost 50% of the first bar, with long tail touching the opening price line (which signal weakness.) Third bar is a Doji-like formation, and the 4^th bar broke the opening price low. The 6^th bar tested the Resistance level, and the 7^th bar confirmed the Resistance level. I entered at the break of the 8^th bar.