$WFMI – Long Term Trade

$WFMI was mentioned on Ivanhoff Captial, and prompted me to take a quick look. 

I first noticed a Wedge forming from the past 1.5 months, since the gap-up that occurred back in early-February

Extending the chart further reveals that the Support (Lower) Level of the Wedge also served as the Resistance (Upper) slope of the rising trendline from last year.  It’s an example of a Resistance Line turn to become the Support Line.

Jumping over to the weekly chart, I plotted a Fibonacci Line using the high of Jan 06’, and the low of December 08’, and noticed that the most of the major Fib. Points aligns with major Support/Resistance level throughout the years. 

My Entry will be the at the break of the Upper Wedge (see White Line), and my Stop will be just underneath the Lower Wedge, below the the long shadows (see Red Line).  My Target will be the high of Jan 06’.

OSK - Triggered

I called out OSK setup on Monday via this post.

Yesterday, OSK was triggered.

Let’s see where OSK will take us.

APA – Long Term Trade – Setup

• A Fib between the Low in Feb' 09’  and the High in June 08’ shows the current prices channeling between the 61% and 50% region

• My Entry will be just above $108
• My Stop will be set conservatively at the early Feb. Low of just under $95
• My Primary Target is around the $120 area, while my Secondary Target is at around $140.

OSK – Long Term Trade - Setup

• The above chart is the Monthly Candle Stick of OSK
• I drew a Fib. using the All-Time High from mid-2007, and the Low from late-2008
• Prices are consolidating between the 50% and 61% Fib Level

• This one above is a Daily Candle Stick of OSK
• Multi-tops were formed from Dec., Mar., and April.
• For now, my Entry is 2 cents above the $42 (even number)
• My Stop is set conservatively at the Low of late February
• My Target is the All-Time High of $63
• I expect this trade would last about 12 months.

Long Term Trade - FXE

• Here’s another Long Term trade that I took position from last week
• Please note that if my Target of $124 is reached, I intend to stay in position and evaluate the situation
• Looking at this chart over the weekend, I noticed that the Target does not yield a full 2R return
• The 2R minimum return is the new standard of all my entries from now on

More Reference on Shorting GLD

Kevin posted his analysis on why he is bearish on GLD and his post can be found here.  Meanwhile, my setup for trading/shorting GLD is posted here from earlier today.

Long Term Trade – Setup - GLD

• GLD is looking to test the 40EMA Support Level
• Instead of using the 40EMA as Entry, I picked a round-number of $84.00 instead.
• Protective Stop is another round-number of $88.00
• Target is $72.00 and below.

Long Term Trade – Setup - EFA

• Trying to catch a reversal on this setup
• The trigger point is above the white line
• Target is where the blue rectangle is with the bottom of the rectangle sitting at 2R
• The Protective Stop is just under $31.55

Let’s see if this setup will get triggered!

Long Term Trade - XHB

I entered long on XHB on Monday.  My Stop was set to just above the high point of last week.  Let’s see if this trade will work out.

Chart of Interest - IEF

What do I see?

• Resistance become Support at $92.75-ish level (see white line.)
• A higher Support was formed at $93, which happens to be the 50% Fib. from June low to December high

Action Item(s)?

• None at the moment
• But may consider Long using $93 as Support

Chart of Interest – XLK

What do I see?

• I don’t see much except that prices broke $16.49 Resistant

Action Item(s)?

• None at this moment / Monitor for Long

Chart of Interest - XLE

What do I see?

• Pivot Point / Resistance at $53.28
• I don’t see an Entry at the moment

Action Items?

• None at this stage
• Looking for a Long entry

Chart of Interest - SMH

What I see?

• A Cup and Handle formation
• Pivot Points at $19.16 level
• Gap-Resistance at $23.00, which could also be an even number resistance as well
• Possible Long entry if prices close above the $19.16 level
• However, R factor is not favorable if the Stop is set to $16.00

Action Item(s)?

• None for now

052407 - DIS - Daily

I entered a longer-term real money trade today on DIS. I'm hoping that the premiere of The Pirates of the Carribean will create some hype around the company. We shall see what will happen. I have to admit that I really don't have a plan. But I'm going to hold this for longer term, so I supposed I have more leverage against short-term pull back.