APA – Long Term Trade – Setup

• A Fib between the Low in Feb' 09’  and the High in June 08’ shows the current prices channeling between the 61% and 50% region

• My Entry will be just above $108
• My Stop will be set conservatively at the early Feb. Low of just under $95
• My Primary Target is around the $120 area, while my Secondary Target is at around $140.

LVS – A Slight Win

• An unconvincing Base and Break trade
• Unconvincing because I really didn’t see any entry bar signaling an Entry
• Instead, I just took the Opening Range Low (15mins) as the Base/Pivot Point, and entered Short when prices dropped below that level
• Once I was committed to this trade, I adjusted the Stop continuously to a level that makes sense
• I was then Stopped Out at $6.12
• Prices did eventually hit my Target of 138%Fib

DRYS – There Were Plenty Left On The Table!

As mentioned in yesterday’s post, I was expecting DRYS to pull back to the next Fib. Level, before continuing its rise. 

With such belief in mind, the first stock that I pulled up today was DRYS, especially when the market is in such Bearish mood today.

DRYS Gapped Down first thing in the morning and slowly reclaimed its lost ground, all the way beyond Yesterday’s Low.

From the Chart below, you can see that the 2nd Bar almost formed an Inverted Hammer.  As the 3rd Bar was forming, I zoomed-out the Chart to 3 Days Interval and noticed that the potential Support Line can be drawn from Monday’s Day-High.  And since the prices have yet to close ‘above’ the 5eMA, I decided to enter Short when prices broke the low of the 3rd bar, with my Protective Stop set at the top of the 3rd bar, hoping that the ‘u-turning’ 5eMA will act as my Resistance.

Unfortunately, the Upper Shadow of the 4th Bar surpassed by Protective Stop by just that bit (see below), and forced me to exit my entire position, automatically of course.

With all those self-belief in me, I decided to re-enter the trade, this time when the prices broke the Low of the 4th bar (Remarks:  I’ve switched from 15mins to 10 mins chart by now.)  This time, I tried to be more cautious and set my Protective Stop just right above the 5th bar high (meaning less R for the run.)

By now, I was trying to plot out the potential Support Levels for my exit, if necessary.  The Opening Bar’s range was so wide that I did have some doubts that it might not hit its Day-Low, today. 

I pulled the Fib from Day-High to Day-Low, and the most obvious Pilot Point was at the 80%Fib. Level.  And obviously, and again, at Day-Low.  (See circles in the Chart below.)

Although I did adjust my Protective Stop, I didn’t follow it too closely by changing the Stop to previous bar’s High.  If so, the very few Up-bar (Blue) that you see below might have exited my position.   Which prompts me to think… I need to really learn how to master the skills of determining my Protective Stops.

Unfortunately, I had to leave for a meeting, and I was forced to exit the trade right before 1400hrs.  Otherwise, I would have caught on to a very nice run.  Prices didn’t stop until hitting the 161%Fib!

Fibonacci Points: DRYS

DRYS has been on my radar in the past few days and this evening, I took some time to study DRYS on a longer time-frame chart.  (Part of my New Year Resolution!)

I’ve circled all the points that DRYS reacted to the major Fibonacci Retracement points, and not surprisingly, today’s closing price is exactly at the 50% Fib. Retracement from October High to December Low. 

My prediction is that the prices of DRYS will retrace back a bit to the $12.60-ish level, before continuing its upward clime again. 

Let’s see how it will turn out.  Meanwhile, chime in if you have some feedback to share!