Monday, April 30, 2007

20070430 - RSH - 15mins - Cast your vote!




Don't cheat by pulling up the chart on your own! Since I don't have that many readers, I will post the end-of-day chart in a few hours. Meanwhile, please leave me a brief message explaining your vote. I would like to hear from observation.

20070430 - RSH - 15mins - Vote Result

It appears that only 1 reader casted his/her vote. Whoever you are, thank you very much for participating. Since I 'still' believe this is a fun and unique way to interact with my readers, and to offer them something different from other financial blogs out there, I will continue to post some 'voting' blog for my viewers.

Anyway, this is what happened to the RSH after the 16th bar, hammer-type, candle. Thank you for voting.

20070430 - TRA - 15mins - Gain*Paper


Symbol: TRA
Type: Short
Entry: The beginning of the 9th bar
Exit: Covered during the 18th bar
Result: Gained +0.64%

What a big ouch! First I picked this stock because it gapped down this morning. Prices retraced, and met up with the falling 5eMA. I also pulled the Daily chart (see 2nd chart) and drew a potential Resistance (Blue line) and potential Support (Red line) area. And then I sat and wait.

I noticed that the 3rd - 7th bar failed to penetrate the Blue line, confirming a Resistance level. Then I set my entry point to right underneath the low of the 3rd and 4th bar. It was met during the 9th bar, and I entered Short. My initial Protective Short was set right above the Blue line, giving me a very low-risk entry. I was a little unsure about my observation, and almost exited the trade during the 10th - 15th bar. Then things started to turn south, as planned.

My primary target was set at the low of the 2nd bar, with my secondary target at the Day-low (from the 1st bar.) Therefore, when the price was hovering around my primary target during the 18th bar. You can tell by the upper shadow of the 18th bar that at one point, it was a strong up-price candle on the 18th. I thought the price-drop was over, and I want to make sure that winning does not turn into a loss. That's when I decided to exit the trade.

As you can tell, the prices continued to fall to almost the 138% Fib. Extension.

The positive thing is, I still walked away with a gain.

Thursday, April 26, 2007

20070426 - ZMH - 15mins - Gain

Posted by Picasa

Symbol: ZMH
Type: Long
Entry: The beginning of the 6th bar
Exit: 4th bar from the end of day
Result: Gained +0.29%

(ZMH) gapped up followed by 3 weak bars all the way back to the Opening Low. The 5th bar painted a Doji-type candle signaling a possible reversal. The 6th is almost a Hammer-type candle, which I took it as a confirmation for the reversal. I entered Long at the beginning of the 7th bar, with my Protective-stop set at the Opening Low. The prices went up for a while, and then stayed flat for the most of the day. I was hoping that it will break the base and climb up further later in the day, but it didn't. While it was stuck in that narrow-range sideway move, I re-adjusted my Stop to the low of the 11th bar, which was triggered shortly before the end-of-day.

20070426 - MMM - 15mins - Loss

Posted by Picasa
Symbol: MMM
Type: Long
Entry: The end of the 6th bar
Exit: Stopped-out at the bottom of the 8th bar
Result: Lost -0.78%

So did I spot the correct set-up or not? Immediately seeing the Hammer-type candle on the 5th bar, I started to prepare for an entry. As I witnessed how the 5th closed strong above the Opening Bar High, I took that as a confirmation that this will be a strong set-up. I entered Long immediately, and place my Protective Stop at the (rising) 5eMA at that moment.

What happened next just puzzled me. A full 'down' bar on the 7th, and the momentum continued on the 8th bar, triggering my Protective-stop. I thought.. that's fine if this is how it's headed. But I was wrong. Prices did bounce back and head steadily towards the 119% Fib. Extension. Although it didn't really hit the 119% level, who I would eventually have to find a place to exit, it would still be better off than the lost I incurred, so fast, so soon!

I have to admit that maybe my Stop was set at a tick too high. Had I set my Stop at the 6th bar low, I would have been totally fine.

So does anyone what had happened in the first 6 bars that led to that crazy 7th bar?

20070426 - CEPH - 15mins - Gain*Paper

Posted by Picasa
Symbol: CEPH
Type: Long
Entry: The beginning of the 9th bar
Exit: Stopped-out during the 22nd bar
Result: Gained +1.5%

(CEPH) gapped up today with a long upper and lower shadow. Prices fell below the Opening Low, but managed to closed a little underneath the Opening Low, forming a Hammer-type candle on the 3rd bar. I pulled a Fib. from 1st bar high to 3rd bar low, and by then, the prices almost bounced back to the 50% Fib. level. The 5th bar formed another Hammer-type candle, but failed to closed above the 4th bar upper shadow. Both the 6th and the 7th bar craved out an upper shadows, forming a resistance level that I saw (see red line.) At that moment,, my strategy was to enter Long if prices go above the red line, which is where I entered during the 9th bar. Looking at the chart again now, maybe I should have waited till the price goes above the 2nd bar upper shadow (see blue line), before entering.

Once entered, my Protective Stop was set at the 8th bar low. My intitial target was Opening High, which was hit strongly during at 2pm. I let it run hoping that it will ge to the 119% level, but it failed. I should have exited immediately after the 20th candle has formed, with that long upper shadow. But I waited hoping that prices will re-challenge the Daily-high, but it didn't. I closed my position as soon as prices fell under the Opening High.

Overall, it is still a respectable gain. I just need to manage my exit properly.

20070426 - TIBX - Observation



Posted by Picasa

This one is just an observation for my future reference. (Not that I know what to reference for!) I was monitoring TIBX under 15 minutes time frame (see 1st screen), and I noticed this 2 downward pushes (don't know the proper term)(see blue arrows). I remember I read it somewhere that these pushes usually come in a set of 3. Therefore, I was just paying attention to it to see if the 3rd one will appear. Then I noticed this strange candles formation (see circle). At that time, I really thought that there's something wrong with my computer. Not that I really know what this formation/setup means, I just let it go.

After the market closes, I re-visited (TIBX), and I changed the time frame to 10 minutes. (See 2nd chart) Notice the Bullish Engulfing? (See circle in 2nd chart.)

Just out of curiosity, I changed to time frame to 5 minutes. It just looks out of whack to me.

I'm sorry if you're expecting me to give a detail explanation of what each means. I'm just not that good... yet! But if you can put in your 2 cents, please do so! (I didn't want to forward this to the pros, because I think they have had a busy day today.)

Wednesday, April 25, 2007

No trading today!

I have too many meetings scheduled this morning. Good luck to all the traders out there!

Tuesday, April 24, 2007

So, you want to Daytrade?

What a vague article, considering that it comes from TheStreet.com! The title was catchy and I guess that is why I fell for it! The author didn't go into deep details about how his typical work-day is like. He pretty much breezed through everything. The only thing that I learned from the article, is the confirmation that those trading products that they sell in the middle of the night, just do not work.

Check it out here, but consider yourself warned.

20070424 - JNPR - 15mins - Loss*Paper


Symbol: JNPR
Type: Short
Entry: The beginning of the 7th bar
Exit: Stop-covered during the 8th bar
Result: Lost -0.59%

With the lowering 5eMA, I thought the inverted hammer on the 6th bar would serve as a sign of reversal. Especially when it failed to close above the Opening High. But it didn't turn out quite as I thought. My Protective Stop was triggered almost immediately before the next bar completed. And it continued to rise without looking back.

Were there any signs at all from the first 6 bars that told me to go Long instead of Short? I thought the upper tails on the 5th band 6th bar are only signs for weakness. Am I wrong? Please drop me a few lines and let me know your thoughts. Thanks!

20070424 - IBM - 15mins - Gain*Paper


Symbol: IBM
Type: Long
Entry: The beginning of the 5th bar
Exit: Mid-way down the 15th bar
Result: Gained +0.27%

IBM was on the news today and I've been monitoring it since the market opened. The 4th was weak but hinted a Support Level carving out with the small lower shadow. With the rising 5eMA, I took a 'controlled-risk' entry right at the beginning of the 5th bar, with my Protective Stop set at the 5eMA. The prices hoovered around the Opening High for a while before rising. But it lost some momentum during the 13th and 14th bar. In fact, I was already concerned by the upper shadow exhibited by the 11th and the 12the bar. I re-adjusted my Stop to the low of the 13th bar, and it was executed during the 15th bar, resulting in a very small gain.

Looking back now, when the 12th bar failed to take out the 2nd and 3rd bar high, it should have served as a warning sign.

What do you think? How would you have done differently?

Monday, April 23, 2007

No Trading Today

I need to take my wife to the doctor. Good luck your trades!

Friday, April 20, 2007

A Million Dollars Mother's Day Package

It appears that the Advertising and Marketing Department of the Boston Four Seasons Hotel really screwed it up this time! Check out the link below and let me know what you think!

http://whatwater.blogspot.com/2007/04/1million-dollars-mothers-day-hotel.html

No trading today!

I have a full day of meetings today.

Have a great weekend!

Thursday, April 19, 2007

20070419 - GOOG - Daily - Gain

After reading Kevin's post on (GOOG) yesterday, I have decided to exit my holdings on GOOG before the market close today.

I earned a 'whopping' 65 cents per share! Hardly enough to cover my transaction fees!

Although Google released some very impressive numbers on their earnings, just like what Kevin mentioned, 'trading the Earning Release' is very risky. If you think about it, those CEOs or CFOs are basically going to come out and say... Earnings are:
1) Above Expectations
2) Meet Expectations
3) Below Expectations

Under normal circumstances, only 'Above Expectations' would bring you 'winnings', assuming that you are 'Long' on the Stocks. The other 2 results will likely to bring the share price down! Therefore, you are betting against the odds of 1 out of 3 that the price will go up.

Of course, you can argue that if you go 'Short' before the Release to get the odds in your favor! But are you really going to bet against companies like Google?

Anyway, I might not be making any sense at all on this topic. But at least this is how I see it when it comes to playing the Earnings game.

Let me know what you think!

20070419 - ISIL - 15mins - Gain*Paper


Symbol: ISIL
Type: Long
Entry: The beginning of the 8th bar
Exit: The low of the 12th bar
Result: Gained +0.4%

Well, this one didn't work out as planned because:
1) I was greedy, and
2) I didn't check the Historical Chart

For whatever reason, the prices just went crazy during the 7th bar. It gapped up, and above, the Opening Range high, and I entered shortly after. My target was the 138% Fib Ext., and it did reach that level! The problem is with me, who failed to exit the trade. I purposely left it there, hoping that it will continue its rise and hit the 138% Fib Level.

Well, it didn't! Instead it pulled back. I decided to exist during the 13th bar... to lock in the 'now-half-gone' profit.

Looking back, had I took a mere 30 seconds to glance through the daily chart, I would have noticed that the Resistance level was set a year ago at that same level (see second chart above.) Not that I would know exactly where to exist, but I would certainly know not to be greedy when the prices reached 119% Fib.

20070419 - CPWR - 15mins - Gain*Paper

Symbol: CPWR
Type: Short
Entry: The beginning of the 8th bar
Exit: The 15th bar
Result: Gained +0.26%

The 7th bar of (CPWR) came crashing down beyond the Opening Low, and I immediately entered Short at the beginning of the 8th bar, using the falling 5eMA as Protective Cover. The 11th to 13th bar failed to extend the drop further, and that's when I knew that this trade might run into issues. When the 15th bar crossed the 'now-flat' 5eMA, I have decided to exist the trade, and pocket the small change.

20070419 - SPSN - 15mins - Loss*Paper

Symbol: SPSN
Type: Short
Entry: The beginning of the 6th bar
Exit: Stopped-out on the 9th bar
Result: Lost -1.22%

What I saw here was an extremely weak 3rd bar, followed by some pull-back on during the 4th and the 5th bar. Both the 4th and the 5th established Resistance with its Upper Shadow at the Opening Low. And I thought that the Opening Low is cleared, and Resistance has been confirmed... dive in!

I entered at the beginning of the 6th bar, and things look great in the beginning. But when the 7th and 8th failed to break the low of the 6th, I was a little concerned. It turned out that my worries were well founded. I had to step away for a while in the office, and when I returned, the price has already went past it's Opening Low, which is my Protective-Cover.

What I want to know is that... are there any sign that I missed during the 3rd - 6th bar that would have signaled me that this trade was NOT going to work out? If so, please kindly let me know by leaving a message. I would appreciate your thoughts and insight.

20070419 - TXT - 15mins - Gain*Paper

Symbol: TXT
Type: Long
Entry: The 8th bar
Exit: The 13th bar
Result: Gained +1.3%

When I saw 4th bar as a 'large hammer-type' formation, I started to monitor (TXT) a little closer this morning. However, prices failed to pierce through the $100.20 mark from the 4th to 7th bar. That's when I told myself that if the price goes above $100.20, along with the rising 5 eMA as support, I will enter 'Long', until I reach the next Fib. level.

It happened on the 8th bar, and my target was reached during the 11th bar. I didn't exit then, because I wanted to let it run... hoping that it will reach its Opening Range High. Unfortunately, the 12th bar scared me, and I exited during the 13th bar pull-back because I want to make sure that I pocket the winnings.

Question for my Reader(s): Would you have exited on the 13th bar, and Why?

I would like to hear from you.

Wednesday, April 18, 2007

20070418 - IBM - 15mins - Observation



Here's another Observation. Kind of like a Self-reminder.

(IBM) gapped down during opening. The Opening Bar was a long weak one, and then it rebounded. Soon after, it re-tested the Opening Low. As it was approaching the Opening Low, that's when I checked the Daily Chart (see first chart above.) I noticed that there is a Supporting Range near the $64.50 level. I drew that line on the 2nd graph, and I quickly noticed that the Profit Margin isn't that great if I am to enter this trade. Therefore, I will classify this as a 'learner-type' of trade.

20070418 - JPM - 15mins - Loss*Paper


Symbol: JPM
Type: Long
Entry: The beginning of the 3rd bar
Exit: The final bar high
Result: Lost -0.06%

This is a very poor entry! Look at the Upper Shadow from the 2nd and the 3rd bar!! I have no idea why/how I missed them before I entered this trade. And as soon as I entered, those shadows seemed to be highlighted, and staring at me. I was lucky that this trade turned out to be a very small loss.

The question of the day is... now there you know you have entered this 'less-than-ideal' trade, where would you have exited? I thought about it during the 9th and the 13th bar low. But from the 13th bar low, a Support base has been established. That's when I tighten my Stop. Eventually, I pulled-out during the last candle.

20070418 - CCK - 15mins - Observation


This is simply a chart that I've been observing for the most part of the day. I want to Blog about it so that I can return this post in the future for reference.

What I saw is that the prices started to consolidate from 11am all the way to 1pm. I told myself that if the prices go up, and above, the 9th bar high, I will enter 'Long.' It never did, and I can never tell that had the price did go back above the 9th bar high, will it continue to reach the next Intra-day Fib level.

Let me know what you think!

20070418 - ASML - 15mins - Gain*Paper

Symbol: ASML
Type: Long
Entry: The beginning of the 6th bar
Exit: The 2nd bar from the end of day
Result: Gained +0.62%

First off my Entry wasn't the best. I was so worried that I might missed the entry, I didn't want to wait as soon as the 5th bar cleared the Opening Range High and closed at its high. As soon as I entered, the prices dropped. My Protective Stop was set at the Opening Range high, and my target was 138% Fib.

The Upper Shadows of the 8th through the 11th bar concerned me, and during lunch hour, I asked myself if I should have exited when I saw those Upper Shadows. (This thought came up partly because of the lowering in prices from the 12th through the 15th bar.) Yes, I doubted myself!

Then from the 15th through the 19th bar, the candles sort of developing a Support level. That's when I decided to adjust my Stop tighter to just underneath the lows of these bars.

Fortunately, the prices went back up slightly and reached the 119% level. I thought about exiting at that point, but I decided to waited. A decision that I don't know if it would be the same had I been trading with real money.

I exited at the 2nd-from-last bar when the prices started to retrace from the Day's high.

20070417 - AMTD - 15mins - Loss*Paper

Symbol: AMTD
Type: Long
Entry: The beginning of the 12th bar.
Exit: Stopped out as soon as the price fell below the Opening Low.
Result: Lost -0.38%

Well, this trade is more of a 'test of theory.'

What theory?

Well, I read this post from Trader Jamie at Wall St. Warrior discussing how 'a spike in volume' signaled an end of a move.

What I didn't read, was the disclaimer that said "Don't try this at home!"

I saw the spike in volume, and I thought a reversal is about to happen. I figured if I set my Protective Stop at the low of the Opening Range, my risk is still bearable. That's why I gave it a shot.

Let me know what you think of this set-up. Would you even react to that 'spike' in volume?

20070417 - KBH - 15mins - Loss*Paper


Symbol: KBH
Type: Long
Entry: The beginning of the 9th bar
Exit: Stopped out at the bottom of the 13th bar
Result: Lost -0.72%

I thought this trade is going to work out, but not! I supposed the long upper tail of the 1st bar could have served a signal of a shaky price. But the 3rd bar was strong, and the prices continued to advanced upward. The 8th bar cleared the Opening High, and I entered Long at the beginning of the 9th bar. My Protective Stop was set at the 5th bar low, which (KBH) had no problem reach my Stop 5 bars later. The fact that neither the 8th or the 9th bar were able to cleared the upper shadows of the 6th and 7th bar should have served a warning sign. Lesson learned!

Tuesday, April 17, 2007

Late Post!

Postings will appear later today. Too much to do at work!

Monday, April 16, 2007

Google - Weekly Inside-bar Approach



Today, I also entered Long on Google with real money, using Kevin's theory as stated in Kevin's Market Blog. Kevin's theory worked out as planned the last time, except that I failed to exit the trade according to plan. You can read about Kevin's approach here, and how he handled Google today here.

20070416 - AQNT - 15mins - Loss*Paper

Symbol: AQNT
Type: Long
Entry: The beginning of the 14th bar
Exit: Stopped-out during the low the 16th bar
Result: Lost -0.5%

Although (AQNT) cleared the Opening Range high, I didn't enter a trade because of those upper shadows appearing through out the morning. It was then that I drew the blue line to tell myself that if the prices rose beyond that level, I will enter 'Long.'

Well, it happened during the 14th bar, but as soon as I saw the 15th bar completed, I knew that the chances of this trade working out as 'hoped', were slim. I was stopped-out during the 16th bar.

Although this is a losing trade, I see it more of a 'test of theory.' A learning experience.

20070416 - MCO - 15mins - Gain*Paper


Symbol: MCO
Type: Long
Entry: The beginning of the 10th bar
Exit: The bottom of the 26th bar
Result: Gained +0.78%

The 9th bar closed cleared the Opening Range, and I entered at the beginning of the 10th bar. My target was at the $66.00 mark because of a Resistance level that I identified from the daily chart. (See 2nd chart above.) My Protective Stop was set at the bottom of the 7th bar.

Not long after my entry, (MCO) reached the 119% Fib. Ext. level, and then setting up a narrow range base formation for the most of the afternoon. It later crossed the 119% mark again at around 3:15pm, but it never gained the momentum to reach my target. I exited on the 26th bar to ensure some gains from this trade.

20070416 - AMZN - 15mins - Gain*Paper


Symbol: AMZN
Type: Long
Entry: The beginning of the 7th bar
Exit: The bottom of the 19th bar
Result: Gained +1.10%

I saw this strong 5th bar crossing the Opening Range high, and closed very near its high. The next bar retraced back to test the Opening High support level. As soon as the 6th bar closed above the Opening High, I entered in the beginning of the 7th bar. Looking back now, I am not too sure if I made the correct decision to enter at the opening of the 7th bar. Because the 6th bar was a weak bar, and the 7th could totally continue south to at least re-test the rising 5eMA. (What do you think?)

My target was the 138% Fib. Ext. level. It never made it there, and I exited the traded when the 18th and 19th bar scared me a little.

For the record, my initial Protective Stop was set at the low of the 5th bar, when I first entered the trade. I later re-adjusted it to the low of the 11th bar.

04/16/2007 - Trading Preview

Traded AMZN, AQNT, and MCO. I'll post the charts and results later today as I have quite a few meetings for the next few hours.

Prayers go to the family of the shooting victims in Virginia Tech.

Saturday, April 14, 2007

Job Opening: Director, Location Based Entertainment

I subscribed to MSN Careers for regular new job openings email update. Today, I received this position of opportunity. I will reveal the hiring company after:

Description
Under the direction of the Div SVP - Location Based Entertainment (LBE), this position is responsible for supporting on-going LBE business development strategies and implementation and conducting analyses of new business opportunities. This position will also be responsible for assisting in the creation and presentation of new strategic business alliance presentations and contract negotiations and will help ensure that all new business activities support the company’s long-term plan.

RESPONSIBILITIES:
1. Identifies domestic and global markets for business opportunities for LBE venues. With the Div SVP, develops plans for development and execution and presents recommendations to senior management.

2. Evaluates lead opportunities that are presented from various sources and follows-up as appropriate.

3.Prepares and participates in presentations to senior management of key business partners and alliances of potential business partnerships.

4. Leverages internal and external relationships to build LBE business opportunities and capitalizes on global market trends and events to drive business results.

5. Work with the legal department regarding contract negotiation.

6.Develops pro-forma projections and financial deal analysis.

Requirements
. 7 years' sales, marketing, and/or business development and analysis experience with 3+ years deal-intensive full cycle business development in the Entertainment, Licensing or Hospitality.

. Bachelor’s degree required.






Now the hiring company: Playboy Enterprise

Now that I know the hiring the hiring company, I look back to the Job Responsibilities...






Playboy Enterprise wants this person to:

Evaluates lead opportunities that are presented from various sources and follows-up as appropriate.

Hmmm!




Playboy Enterprise wants this person to:

Prepares and participates in presentations to senior management of key business partners and alliances of potential business partnerships.

Hmmm!




Playboy Enterprise wants this person to:

Leverages internal and external relationships to build LBE business opportunities and capitalizes on global market trends and events to drive business results.


Hmmm!


Here's the link if you are interested. Just make sure you keep us posted on how you like your new job. I'll stick with my current job, and continue to master my daytrading skills.

20070413 - AZN - 15mins - Observation


My final post of the day is an observation that I came across, and I wanted to Blog it for future reference for myself.

When the 5th bar completed, I noticed a somewhat Bullish Engulfing pattern. Since I'm not too sure about those upper and lower shadows, I didn't take a move to go Long. Instead, I made sure that I re-visit this set-up after the market closes for a review.

It appears that had I went Long at the beginning of the 6th bar, I'll only be 'happy' for about 30 minutes or less. Because if the 8th bar low doesn't trigger my Protective Stop, the 9th bar certainly would. And even if those shadows weren't there, my goal would have been shooting for the next Fib. Ext., which it never made it. However, I should still be able to end with a small gain. But I'm still glad that I didn't make this move, even when I was only Paper Trading.

To my readers out there, let me know how you see this setup. Are there other clear warning signs, that I didn't see, that were telling me to "forget about it"?

Until next week, have a great weekend!

20070413 - VAR - 15mins - Gain*Paper




Symbol: VAR
Type: Short
Entry: The beginning of the 7th bar
Exit: Half way through the 21st bar
Result: Gained +0.33%

I was also monitoring (VAR) today, watching it fall below the Opening Low. I checked the Daily chart (see 1st chart above), and noticed that a possible Resistance point is also the same as the 3rd bar low. Therefore, I was waiting for the prices to clear the Opening Low to enter Short. The 7th bar cleared and I entered. But it never went the way that I had hoped. I tightened my Stop-Cover closer just in case the 'bad' unpredictable happens. The Protective-Cover triggered during the 21st bar, resulting in an extremely small gain.

Friday, April 13, 2007

20070413 - SLM - 15mins - Gain*Paper



Symbol: SLM
Type: Long
Entry: The beginning of the 11th bar
Exit: The same 11th bar, as soon as it reached my target.
Result: Gained +1.17%

This trade is my quickest round-trip trade so far, and could remain one of the quickest for a while. Part of my routine in evaluating a setup is to take a quick look at the daily chart. From the Daily Chart, I noticed that a possible Resistance Point is at the $46.50 mark (see 1st chart.) I placed a line at $46.50 on my 15-minute chart, and I stared!

The 9th bar crossed the Opening High, but I wanted to wait for confirmation. When the 10th bar continued to rise, I thought I was going to miss the entry. But then it started to retraced backwards. Fortunately, the prices did pull back within the 10th bar, but enough to clear the Opening High. I entered at the beginning of the 11th bar. I just didn't expect the price to have shot up so fast that my target was reached within 10 minutes.

20070413 - MRK - 15mins - Gain*Paper


Symbol: MRK
Type: Long
Entry: The beginning of the 7th bar
Exit: Stopped-out at the bottom of the 15th bar
Result: Gained +0.5%

The 3th bar of (MRK) had already cleared the Opening High. But I wasn't convinced that the price will rise at that time because of a weak 3rd bar, with a long upper shadow. Finally, there was a strong 6th bar closing at its high, and that's when I decided to enter. The 12th bar reach the Fib. Ext., but I let it ran, hoping that the price will reach 138% level. Not only the prices didn't get higher, it retraced back to the 118% level, and I was stopped-out during the low of 15th bar.

Looking at the rest of the bars in the remaining day, had I stayed in, I still think I would get stopped-out right around my current exit price range.

A very small gain. If my/your size is not big enough, it might turn to a slight loss once the commissions are subtracted.

Delayed Postings

I have a few charts to post... I'm just stuck with some other work stuff right now. I'll post the charts later this evening.

Follow-up on the CDWC trade

As mentioned in my yesterday's post on (CDWC), I was looking for someone to confirm/comment on my observation, and my decision on how I handled (CDWC). Later that evening, I came across this post made by Jamie at Wall St. Warrior. Apparently, someone posted a similar question to Jamie on (CDWC) as well.

Here is Jamie's view on (CDWC)
.

Thursday, April 12, 2007

Someone is reading my Blog!!??

Oh my god! I cannot believe it! Someone actually read my blog and left me a comment. Actually, there were 2 viewers who left me some very encouraging message.

The first person was Bubs from Bubs blog. Bubs, if you are reading this, the link you provided from http://bubss.blogspot.com/ is bad. You need to take out the "www" in front.

The second person was Babak from Trader's Narrative. Oh my god, Babak just posted a way to hack into Andy Swan's MyTrade.com! Check it out here!

Once again, thank you both for your input. Please come back and visit again if you don't find that I'm too boring!

20070412 - ANF - 15mins - Mrs. Gain


I think this is a bad one to miss, even when it is on paper! (ANF) prices gapped up in the opening and drew backwards immediately. Prices retraced back to the Opening High during the next 4 candles. The 6th candle went beyond the Opening High, with a Doji-like shape completing the 7th bar. I thought about entering towards the end of the 8th bar. But the 8th bar was a rather weak bar with prices closing at its low. The next bar was similar to an inverted-hammer, and basically, the prices just took off from there. I believe that there are another opportunity near the 13th bar high. But I am not too sure. (Please feel free to voice your observation!)

Anyway, the prices went all the way beyond the %161.8 Fib. Ext. But I could only watch!

Too Fast, too furious?


I was watching (FAST) unfold this moring, reaching all the way up to 161.8% Fib. Ext. "Wow!" was all I had in mind. Followed-by a few questions to myself: "Where is entry?", "What are the signs", and "What/how is the setup?" I mean, it hit 161 before the clock hit 11am!

I'll try to make a post on those Pros' blog, to see if they can provide some feedback. And of course, I would like to hear from you directly too! Let me know what you think!

20070412 - CDWC - 15mins - Loss*Paper


Symbol: CDWC
Type: Long - Paper
Entry: The beginning of the 11th bar (see blue arrow)
Exit: Stopped out on the 12th bar (see red arrow)
Result: Lost -0.26%

As mentioned in my previous post from yesterday, I have decided to go back to Paper Trading to polish my skills further before going back to money-trade.

I spent some time browsing for proper setup and I was surprised that it took a while before a few decent setups appear.

(CDWC) gapped-up this morning but painted a weak opening bar. Prices slowing pick-up some momentum and tested the Opening High again. It painted a Doji on the 8th bar, signaling a possible reversal. I didn't execute, even it was only on paper (because I didn't want to pick up a bad habit of trigger-friendly), and checked out the Daily-bar chart (see below.) I noticed that a possible Resistance level is at $66.00, which is just slightly below the 113% Fib. Ext. Therefore I decided that if prices were able to cleared the Opening High, I will enter Long for a small gain, if it reaches $66.00.

By the 10th bar finished, I saw an opportunity. Although I did tell myself that the slight upper shadow of the 10th bar should be a cautious signal. I decided to take a chance and entered on the 1th bar. My Protective Stop was set to slight below the 5eMA. Unfortunately, I was Stopped-out during the next bar.


If you have an opinion on how might able to improve this trade, or any trade that you see in this blog (or your opinions on not to take this/any trade that you see in this blog), please feel free to leave me a comment. I wouldn't know if I'm seeing the right things if no one is here to tell me! Thank you in advance for your time!

Wednesday, April 11, 2007

Short-cutting the learning curve! I'm going back to Paper Trading!

In the aftermath of this morning's ugly trade on (NUVO), I have decided to take a step back and do some more paper trading before I put my bankroll at risk again. These past few days of trading had led me to believe that I'm not yet ready for the "Big-Show." I still have a lot to learn! In fact, I haven't done enough Paper-trading before I jumped into money trading. In other words, as Brett Steenbarger said it... "I'm short-cutting the learning curve."

I agree with him that the last thing I want is to put my bankroll at risk! I was overly excited when the money was handed over to me. I cut short my learning, and dived right in because I thought i was ready for 'show-time.' I was not! Not even close!

Since I'm supposed to track my transactions, even when I'm Paper-trading, I will continue to blog my trades here. I will tag them with the appropriate words, like Paper Trading, etc. I don't have the details on how I'm going to Paper-trade. But I will definitely treat it as if I'm trading with my real money.

No more trading for the remaining afternoon!

I need to support my team, Liverpool! It's the Champions League Quarter Final between Liverpool and PSV. Liverpool had the advantage of winning 0-3 at PSV. It shouldn't be a problem for Liverpool to advance to the Chelsea!

You will Never Walk Alone!

Go Stevie G!

20070411 - NUVO - 15mins - Loss



Symbol: (NUVO)
Type: Short
Entry: Half way through the 6th bar
Exit: Protection Cover executed at the 7th bar high
Result: Lost -3.41%

Another poor judgment that led to a devastating lost. I've been monitoring (NUVO) during the past 2 days, and I knew that this stock has been active. When I saw the 3rd bar closing clear of the Opening Low, I didn't bother because I slightly concern about the lower tails in the first 3 bars. 4th bar came a hammer, followed by a weak 5th bar. Once the 5th bar has completed at its low, I decided to enter Short. The prices went down so fast that by the time my order was in, I was already half way down the 6th bar. When the 7th bar turned North, it's when I realized that the 'some-what' falling 5eMA was a long way back! I panicked! Because I want to minimize my risk! I know that if the prices re-test the 5eMA resistant, I will get very uncomfortable. More importantly (stupidly), had I take a look at where the 5eMA was before I enter, I would not have even bothered! I made a rush decision... AGAIN!!! How disappointing!

With all these thoughts going through my mind, while watching prices heading up towards the 5eMA, I made the decision to Cover my loss and forget about it! I am just not mentally prepared for this battle! I realized that I just went into a fight without properly preparing myself, both mentally and mathematically!

Looking back at the charts now, I can tell you that my first target was the 119% Fib. Ext. My second target was at $4.34, which was the Support established 2 days ago. My final target was at $4.11 which is the Resistant established back in March. As of right now, it doesn't appear that (NUVO) will hit any of my target. Still, had I have the guts to stay-in, I would still be better off than a 3% loss!

I felt that I was prepared at that instance. But I was wrong. It seems that I always missed something before I jump into a trade. I am just too inexperienced! I am beginning to think that I need to practice more before I get into more real money action. :-(

Tuesday, April 10, 2007

20070410 - INCY - 15mins - Reviewed by Wall St. Warrior

Another post-match review, this time by Jamie from Wall St. Warrior. Please note that the chart above is a 5-minute chart. Jamie brought up a point that the 5-minute chart was 'choppy', and therefore I want to include the chart in this post for review. Jamie also mentioned about the "Long upper shadow on the 3rd bar", which should have served as a caution. Here is his review:

I see a few red flags on INCY:

Long upper shadow on 3rd bar.
Choppy trading especially when I drill down to the 5 minute timeframe.
Resistance dating back to early February at $7.70.

Usually when resistance is just overhead, I wait until resistance is taken out and then try to get in on the retest (ie. resistance becomes support). You entered as price broke resistance on the 10th bar. When it pulled back in and did not hold $7.70 as support, it resulted in a failed breakout and a signal to exit the position.


And since both ADD Traders and Jamie mentioned early February high, I am also attaching the daily chart below, to point out what they are referring to.

Once again, I want to express my million thanks to these 2 individuals, who are willing to take time to respond to my inquiry. Thanks!

20070410 - INCY - 15mins - Reviewed by ADD

As mentioned, I was going to post a question to the Pro, to find out why they think the setup on INCY failed today. This comment was left by ADD Trader, in response to the question that I posted on Trader-X's site.

Hi Closet,

For what it is worth.....

The high of 9th bar did close strong above the OR high, but below the high of the day and you had a big tail on the 3rd bar to be wary of. Maybe of more importance though is that the high of the 9th bar was the exact high (7.70) that INCY made on a daily chart on 2/2/07. I know X doesn't look at larger time frames, but they can come into play, ESPECIALLY on large gaps right up to resistance.

Also, sometimes a good set up just doesn't work out. That pullback on the 10th bar (leaving a long upper shadow) should have been a sign to possibly close the position. And if not, then definitely on the pullback from the 13th bar high. Three failed attempts to break out tell you (in my opinion) that the chances of it happening are slim.

Not to say I would have sold....just look at my short in STX...I had three chances to cover and didn't. Doh......!

ADD
A million thanks to ADD Trader for spending the time to provide his input. After digesting his suggestions, I made some notes on the chart, to highlight what ADD Trader commented. He pointed out quite a few things (yup, a few! Scary!) that I missed when I was in action. It is definitely something that I need to learn.

Champions League

No more trading for the remaining of the day. I need to catch the Champions League between Manchester United vs. Roma, and Valencia vs. Chelsea.

20070410 - INCY - 15mins - Loss


Symbol: INCY
Type: Long
Entry: At almost the top of the 10th bar
Exit: Stopped out close to the bottom of the 13th bar
Result: Lost -1.42%

I really need to learn how not to jump into trade too quickly! I thought I caught the consolidation from the 4th through the 8th bar, with a few Inside Bars and Narrowest Range Bar. I told myself that if the price moves above the Opening High, I will go Long. I was distracted for a moment, and when I come back to this setup, the 9th bar was already completed, and at that moment, the 10th bar seemed to me that it was going strong. Therefore, I entered Long, and expecting to exit at the 113% Fib Ext.

Not only did the price not go up, it re-tested the 5eMA support, almost as soon as I have entered the trade. The next bar showed a slightly positive bar, and I thought the situation would have changed for the better when the 12th bar closed at its high.

Man! Was I wrong again?! My Protective Stop was set to slightly below the, now flat, 5eMA. And it was executed during the 13th bar meltdown.

What did I do wrong? I wouldn't know unless I check with the Pros... which I will! But before I hear from them (assuming that they will respond), my criticisms for myself is:
1) When the 7th bar broke the Opening Range high, there wasn't much Volume. I don't know if it matters!
2) I should have sticked with my original game plan by looking for bars that have cleared the Opening High. In this case, only the 4th bar had cleared the Opening High! I was observing the situation when the 4th bar completed, and I was not convinced that it was a good entry because the rising 5eMA was too far below.

I will post this setup to the Pros and see what they have to say. If you have input that you would like to share, please feel free to do so. I would like to hear from you.


Review by ADD Trader posted here.
Review by Wall St. Warrior posted here.