Wednesday, January 7, 2009

DRYS – There Were Plenty Left On The Table!

As mentioned in yesterday’s post, I was expecting DRYS to pull back to the next Fib. Level, before continuing its rise. 

With such belief in mind, the first stock that I pulled up today was DRYS, especially when the market is in such Bearish mood today.

DRYS Gapped Down first thing in the morning and slowly reclaimed its lost ground, all the way beyond Yesterday’s Low.

From the Chart below, you can see that the 2nd Bar almost formed an Inverted Hammer.  As the 3rd Bar was forming, I zoomed-out the Chart to 3 Days Interval and noticed that the potential Support Line can be drawn from Monday’s Day-High.  And since the prices have yet to close ‘above’ the 5eMA, I decided to enter Short when prices broke the low of the 3rd bar, with my Protective Stop set at the top of the 3rd bar, hoping that the ‘u-turning’ 5eMA will act as my Resistance.

DRYS - 2009-01-07 134612 - 15m

Unfortunately, the Upper Shadow of the 4th Bar surpassed by Protective Stop by just that bit (see below), and forced me to exit my entire position, automatically of course.

DRYS - 2009-01-07 134810 - 10m

With all those self-belief in me, I decided to re-enter the trade, this time when the prices broke the Low of the 4th bar (Remarks:  I’ve switched from 15mins to 10 mins chart by now.)  This time, I tried to be more cautious and set my Protective Stop just right above the 5th bar high (meaning less R for the run.)

DRYS - 2009-01-07 134953 - 10m

By now, I was trying to plot out the potential Support Levels for my exit, if necessary.  The Opening Bar’s range was so wide that I did have some doubts that it might not hit its Day-Low, today. 

I pulled the Fib from Day-High to Day-Low, and the most obvious Pilot Point was at the 80%Fib. Level.  And obviously, and again, at Day-Low.  (See circles in the Chart below.)

Although I did adjust my Protective Stop, I didn’t follow it too closely by changing the Stop to previous bar’s High.  If so, the very few Up-bar (Blue) that you see below might have exited my position.   Which prompts me to think… I need to really learn how to master the skills of determining my Protective Stops.

Unfortunately, I had to leave for a meeting, and I was forced to exit the trade right before 1400hrs.  Otherwise, I would have caught on to a very nice run.  Prices didn’t stop until hitting the 161%Fib!

DRYS - 2009-01-07 135455 - 15m

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