Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Observations: ADM, BG, ERIC, TIF, and UBS.

I tried, and wanted, to make a trade today, but I just couldn’t spot any Entries!  Here are a few charts that I was looking at this morning.

ADM - 2009-01-14 165514 - 10m

  • It was a NR7 + Inside Bar + (almost) Hammer, and I wanted to go Long had prices broke through the previous bar high
  • My Target would be merely the next Fib Level
  • It would still put me at 2R profit, had it worked out the way I wanted it to
  • It didn’t, and you are looking at the reason why it didn’t
  • Fortunately, I didn’t jumped the gun

BG - 2009-01-14 165648 - 15m

  • With BG, I was hoping that the lowering 5eMA would act as Resistance and push the prices back to the Day-Low
  • The Entry Bar was the Inverted Hammer (see circled), and my Entry was set to the Previous Bar low
  • I thought with the market in such a Bearish mode, it’s easy to drop back down.
  • It didn’t, and my trade didn’t get triggered
  • I’m certainly ‘okay’ with it looking at the chart now

ERIC - 2009-01-14 165354 - 10m

  • I was hoping for a Base and Break and it never happened
  • Once again, I was proud of myself for sticking to my entry rules, and never dive-in ahead of time in anticipation of what *could* happen
  • In this case, nothing!

TIF - 2009-01-14 165856 - 15m

  • With TIF, I was almost certain that Yesterday’s Low would act as Resistance and push the prices back towards its Day Low
  • Too much wishful thinking there!
  • It looks like Yesterday’s Low was blown away just like that!

UBS - 2009-01-14 165615 - 15m

  • As for UBS above, I saw the 3rd Bar Inverted Hammer, but I just couldn’t see an entry in the shorter time-frame
  • As prices fell pass the Opening Low, I thought I’ve missed the entry (as mentioned in Twitter.)
  • It turned out that this is another ‘Good Miss!’

Overall, I’m proud of myself for sticking to my rules, and not “early-entry” into these positions.  But “not trading” means “no money.”  I need my trades to be more frequent, and more accurate.

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